Resolution of political problems which have arisen in connection with the accusation of top state officials of wrongdoings requires a complicated technical expert examination. For various, largely conjectural, reasons, the investigation in this case is delayed. But, importantly, the political game capable of drastically changing the framework for searching for legal solutions is being played very actively. So, then, is it necessary for our society to wait for an experts’ opinion or is it better to try and carry out a public expert examination, and focus primarily on the developments in recent weeks? But our electronic mass media and the newspapers with the greatest circulation so uncertainly and one-sidedly report on what the authorities on which we depend to a great extent are doing that we have to watch and read Russia’s mass media reports. After all, now they enjoy the greatest trust. Recall that it was them that only recently have tapped «without authorization» talks of Ukraine’s President when he made arrangements on intestate cooperation with President Putin. Subsequently, these audiotapes became a weighty (and quite unexpected) argument of our strategic partner at the Prime-Minister level talks. For example, the article «Moscow and Washington are struggling for Ukraine» in the Nezavisimaya Gazeta

newspaper of December 23 says: «┘L. Kuchma failed to find a sufficient support of the Right parliamentary majority, oligarchs and, in part, the chiefs of law enforcement agencies┘ — the reason for his visit to Russia is unconvincing┘ — now Kuchma is very much in need of Moscow’s support┘ — political scandals in Ukraine are financed and masterminded by Americans┘ — the USA has decided on Kuchma’s successor; in the case of his resignation Premier Yushchenko is sure to become the new President of Ukraine.. — the unexpected «gas gifts» from Moscow, the restructuring of Ukraine’s debts, and the attempt to reanimate the trade and economic cooperation clearly testify to the fact that Moscow is trying to outplay Washington and strengthen its influence on Kyiv┘ — in the nearest future the pro-American Premier and the pro-Russian President will go on the warpath in their struggle for power—» We should recall against the backdrop of these witty commentaries that Leonid Kuchma several times has changed his own views on the forces implicated in the «audiotapegate», pointing sometimes to foreign, sometimes to domestic masterminds. Indicative is the fact that during the unexpected visit to Russia, which is not generally understandable in terms of its program, at long last he opted for the version of domestic schemers. What kind of support did he seek and what did he offer in exchange of it?

After all, he had alternatives. It is not with Americans that we still have unsorted problems of the borders and the regime of foreign military presence on our territory. It is not with them that backstage schemes of fabulous enrichment were designed which were put under jeopardy as a result of actions of the government of reformers imposed on us by overseas patrons.

And, finally, what were the questions of cooperation of law enforcement structures of two Slavic states agreed upon for? The importance of these circumstances is wholly confirmed by the fact of new attacks on Vice-Premier Yuliya Tymoshenko. According to the UNIAN news agency, an anonymous source in Russia’s General Procurator’s Office said that law enforcement agencies of the Russian Federation had received from their counterparts in Ukraine an order to compromise Yu. Tymoshenko by probing deeper into the relationships of Russia’s Defense Ministry with the Yedyni Energetychni Systemy Ukrainy (Integrated Power Networks of Ukraine) Company which she headed in 1997. In her statement in response this was referred to as a provocation on the part of Ukraine’s law enforcement agencies, backstage influence groups and corrupted clans which control their activities. Though, the Kremlin may possibly be preparing grounds for the dismissal of the Defense Minister. Besides, Russia’s General Procurator’ Office, which has a no less doubtful reputation, is in need of having its rating raised. As far back as in Stalinist times, which one has to recollect ever more often regarding developments on the post-Soviet territory, this was best done, using trumped-up materials. However, we face the real power that is beyond public control and has the corresponding «state-sponsored award».

It is to Russia’s advantage to have a dependent President and a weakened Government; the more so because we are on the eve of an extremely important stage of privatization. Here Russia is very likely to share influence with Ukrainian oligarchs. But the hitch is that Ukraine’s government is unmanageable and, in terms of prospects, even dangerous.

The Russian factor is increasingly looming large in Ukraine’s politics. It is regretful that this is occurring at the initiative of Ukraine’s President as well. Will, following the generally ritual sacrifice of Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, the strategic partnership with Russia and the personal rapport between the two Presidents require the dismissal of the key Vice-Premier and the final weakening of Ukraine’s Government? Who, then, will remain in the country’s leadership of those who know why we need reforming, what reforms should be undertaken and how they should be carried out and, simultaneously, who are capable of working for society rather than engaging in the mere struggle for power?

But we can agree with the last version of the President that our problems are largely of domestic origin. So, for Leonid Kuchma there remains an alternative: either to surrender on honorable terms to quite familiar and «socially related» oligarchs or to undertake true reforms. One can not rule out that in the case of his wrong choice we will have to elect a new President.